第一檔指數基金的發明者
『柏格腦』取自約翰・柏格,後來被尊稱為指數教父。他畢生提倡投資人須把握三項原則:分散風險、降低投資成本、長期持有;聽起來來簡單,也不算他獨創,但大家不知道的事,當初他在一九七五年推出史上第一個追蹤標普五百的指數型基金「先鋒第一指數投資信託」(Vanguard First Index Investment Trust),卻是被當時的華爾街戲稱「柏格的蠢事」(Bogle’s folly) ; 當時的華爾街認為:「哪位投資人會對績效注定平凡的基金動心?」甚至導致他募資不足買不齊標普五百指數涵括的五百家公司。但約翰・伯格只是想著:「不能取消,我們就要有全世界第一個指數型基金了!」後來,這檔基金更名為眾所皆知的「先鋒五百指數型基金」(Vanguard 500 Index Fund),最近期的資料顯示,基金規模逾四千億美元。約翰・伯格被譽為指數教父當之無愧,連巴費特都稱呼他為英雄,因為他帶給投資人長期穩定的收益。「先鋒五百指數型基金」產品發揚光大後,伯格的追隨者愈來愈多,市場上甚至出現一派自稱「柏格腦(Bogleheads)」的「腦粉」,他們在柏格腦網站(Bogleheads)討論各種投資策略。
指數教父腦粉的資產配置
『伯格頭三基金Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio』相較於之前介紹過的永續組合、全天候和金蝴蝶而言毋庸置疑是最單純、最省腦的資產配置!『伯格頭三基金Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio』就如其名,只要投資三種類型的資產,就是美國大型股指數、一個國際股市指數跟長期國債基金。
『伯格頭三基金Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio』是一個利用資產性值的多元去降低整體益損的波動率和最大回撤幅度。持有幾種關係不相近的資產,可以降低風險,亦可避開市場的黑天鵝事件( 非常難以預測,且不尋常,通常也會引起市場連鎖負面反應甚至顛覆)和最大化風險調整後收益(將風險因素剔除以後的收益指標,例如.夏普比率)。
第一類基金:美國整體/大型股市指數
按照約翰・伯格的論點和過去的回測實證,大多數最頂尖的投資人都無法從市場中選出一隻可以超過10年都贏過總體市場指數的股票,更不用提散戶自己去做選擇,故這是為何約翰・伯格堅持投資美國大型指數ETF的原因。
第二類基金:美國外國際股票市場指數
在全球股市中,美國股市佔了50%,說明其他國家股市也也同樣重要。國際股市並非總是按照美股的起伏,舉例來說:從1970到2008年將相同資金80%投入美國大盤、20%資金投入國際股票,這樣的組合表現收益比將100%資金投入美國大盤股市還要好。
第三類基金:總體債券市場指數
債券是靠著當債權人賺的利息來獲益,其風險相較前面美國大型股和國際股票市場指數來得低許多。對於年長的投資者來說,長期債券可能波動性太大,並且很容易受到利率風險的影響;對於年輕的投資者來說,短期債券過於保守,分配比例為40%,因此,中期債券提供了一個合適的快樂媒介對於大多數投資者而言。
專家評論『伯格頭三基金Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio』的優點
節錄自《柏格頭投資指南》一書的作者Taylor Larimore的敘述,此檔配置擁有下列無可取代的優點:
- 多元性,擁有全世界10,000支有價證券
- 含括各種類型的和資產大小的市場
- 入手價格相對低廉
- 在稅上面的成本相對低(以美國來講)
- 沒有管理人決策的風險(No management risk)
- 不用風格移轉(No Style Drift)
- 沒有重複性(No overlap)
- 週轉資金低(Low turnover)
- 避免前超前的非法交易(No Front running)
- 容易再平衡
- 極少擔心低於市場整體表現
- 數據上確定比大多數投資者獲益更多
- 單純性高
最後如何優化自己的『伯格頭』資產配置?
『伯格頭三基金Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio』建議在債券方面選用總體債券市場,這是由於按照約翰・伯格的理念,一定要增加多元性才能分散風險。但以下列出三種回測供大家參考,設定為從1987-2019年間,投資組合1使用的是原方案的總體債券市場ETF,投資組合2使用的是中長期國庫券,投資組合3使用的是長期國債。
我們可以看到,與使用總體債券市場的投資組合1相比,帶有國債的投資組合2可獲得更高的一般收益和風險調整後的收益、更低的波動率以及更小的跌幅。為什麼會這樣呢?這是因為包含公司型債券的總體債券市場與股票的價格關聯性更加緊密所以對波動的補償作用相對較低。
另外,投資組合3的總收益和風險調整後收益要高得多,總波動性也更低,這是由於長期國債較高的波動性,更能抵抗股票的下跌運動!看完以後希望你找到心中的最佳優化選擇了喔!
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